TL;DR
Long the December hike near 82% priced; the hot PPI and retail sales keep me in it and I'm not fading hot inflation.
My duration hedge is on notice: 10Y fell into a risk-on tape, and one more session like it breaks the haven thesis.
Crypto is no hedge here with SPX-Bitcoin correlation at 0.59; I'm using duration or nothing.
HY at 323bp is my credit tell; the index is calm but the low-quality end is at the wide end of its range.
Dollar sits exactly on my 102 invalidation; a close above it and I shelve the weak-dollar view.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said duration stays my hedge while 10Y holds 5.10 and rallies into risk-off, with bear flattening the thing that flips it. Today challenged that read head on. 10Y yield fell 9bp to 5.1% while equities rose, so the haven bid I leaned on simply was not there on a risk-on tape. My oldest open thesis, that 10Y keeps rallying through hot prints as a haven, is the one under pressure, and the number keeping it barely alive is that 5.1% level itself, which held even as yields fell 9bp at settlement. I'm not changing my read yet, but one more session of yields up with equities up and I treat the hedge as broken. The copper crowding flag is still live, and the dollar invalidation sits right on the line.
