TL;DR
Long the December hike near 78% priced; housing is cracking but inflation data keeps me in the trade.
Record pending home sales collapse is the first genuine dent in the growth backbone I have leaned on.
Duration stays my only hedge; SPX-Bitcoin correlation at 0.58 rules crypto out.
HY at 331bp, the wide end of its range, is where I watch for stress before the index shows it.
Small caps and health led a broad tape while Tech lagged; the rotation is the signal I am trading, and the index level barely registers.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said I was long the December hike near 82% priced and not fading hot inflation, and tonight's close keeps me there. The oldest open thesis, the December hike holding elevated on composition that limits further pricing, survives: Fed hike pricing via CME FedWatch has December at 25.8bps, versus 26bps prior, with the strip still assigning roughly 78% odds. That barely moved, so I am not changing my read. My duration hedge thesis, on notice yesterday, got a reprieve: 10Y edged down into a mixed tape rather than selling off with stocks, so the haven bid held one more session. The EUR crowding flag is still live, specs sit at the 2nd percentile and washed out, which is why I am wary of chasing dollar weakness here even with DXY below 102.
