TL;DR
December hike stays my base case while the 2Y holds a weekly close above 4.65% (structural, months)
The strip prices +33bp more than the policy rules justify, and tomorrow's core PCE decides who is right (structural, months)
UST 2Y spec longs are stretched at the 96th percentile, so a hot core PCE is the one that forces them out and backs my December lean (positioning, days to weeks)
Duration is not hedging equities with SPX-10Y at -0.07, so I will NOT run a bond leg yet (positioning, days to weeks)
Gold fade intact inside a week still grinding lower off 4056 (positioning, days to weeks)
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said the December hike stays my base case near 68% priced and the front end is committed, with me alongside it (structural, months). Today's close confirms it. The Fed left rates on hold as expected, although Cook and Hammack dissented in favour of a 25bps hike, and the 2Y settled at 4.68%, still ABOVE the 4.65% invalidation that keeps the December thesis alive. That is the oldest open view I hold alongside the gold fade, and both survive the day: the December hike thesis stays INTACT, and gold closed at 4056 within a week that is still grinding lower.
My read does not change. I stay long the December thesis as long as we hold ABOVE 4.65% on the 2Y, and I keep the stock-bond correlation flag live because at -0.07 duration still is not hedging my equity book (positioning, days to weeks).