TL;DR
Long the December hike, now near 84%; core at 0.335% M/M is why, and PPI tomorrow is the next test.
Duration beats gold and Bitcoin as my equity hedge; the long end caught the flight-to-quality bid today.
Gold's growth-asset thesis is challenged; it fell while yields fell, and one more session like it and I change my read.
Dollar uptrend intact at 102.55, holding above the 102 invalidation; cleanest macro trend I've got.
Copper crowding flag still live at the 87th percentile.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said I was long the December hike at 76% and that core CPI was the only thing that could move it. Today's print moved it my way: core CPI rose 0.335% M/M, above the expected 0.2%, while the annual rate accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4%. That reaffirms the December thesis opened two days ago, now sitting near 84% on the strip. The oldest open thesis, gold as a growth asset firming with equities, is the one I'm watching hardest: gold slipped as equities sold and yields fell at the long end, which is the opposite of how that regime is meant to behave, so it's challenged. I'm keeping it alive only because the 5d is still +1.10 and the correlation to the 10Y at -0.55 holds, but one more session like this and I'm changing my read. The copper crowding flag at the 87th percentile is still live.
