TL;DR
December hike stays my base case near 68% priced; the front end is committed and I'm with it.
The 2Y at 4.68% holds above 4.65% invalidation, so the December thesis is intact until it doesn't.
Stock-bond correlation at -0.07 means duration still isn't hedging equities; I need it to reassert before I trust a bond leg.
HY at 330bp is where stress shows first; IG is neutral and not the story.
FOMC tomorrow decides the week; a hawkish Warsh hold is the risk the strip is braced for.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said December stays my base case at 70% priced and the front end was committed. Today's close backs that. Durable goods beat and confidence blew the doors off, front-end yields lifted a touch, and the strip still carries roughly 68% odds on a December hike. The oldest open view, the 10Y declining on terminal relief without a growth scare, is holding its shape: the 10Y sat flat on the day at 5% while equities rose, so no scare and no unwind. On the December hike thesis, the 2Y at 4.68% stays above my 4.65% invalidation, so that one is intact and I'm not touching it. Not much changed my read today, and that suits me going into the statement.