TL;DR
I stay long the December hike near 78% priced; the trade dies only if odds break below 70%.
Housing is the crack I'm watching, with pending sales down 7.3% on the month; it has not yet reached inflation pricing.
Duration is my hedge after the gold-dollar correlation weakened to -0.41, and gold no longer does that job for me.
HY at 329bp is where stress shows first; IG at 87bp says nothing yet.
Tech leadership carried a flat index; the S&P book flipped to an up-trend regime today.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said I was long the December hike near 78% priced, leaning on inflation data even as housing cracked. Today's close keeps me there: December sits at roughly 78% odds, with 2027-01 near 100%, and nothing on the strip dislodged that. The oldest open thesis, dollar weakness invalidated above 102, stays intact with DXY at 101.68 and flat on the day, so I leave it running. My December thesis is challenged only by housing, and the number that keeps it alive is the strip itself, which did not budge on the hike. The SPHB/SPLV crowding flag is still live after another heavy week. For now I'm not reversing anything.