TL;DR
Long the December hike near 90% after hot PPI; the energy-driven composition is why I'm not pricing more.
Dollar uptrend sits on its 102 invalidation after today's 0.52% fall; one more soft session and I change my read.
Duration stays my equity hedge; the 10Y caught the haven bid again despite hot inflation.
Copper crowding flag still live at the 87th percentile.
Watching whether the long end keeps rallying through hot prints or finally bear flattens; that decides the next leg.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said I'm long the December hike near 84%, with hot core the reason and PPI the next test. Today's PPI cleared that test and then some, and the strip now has December at roughly 90% odds, the first month with a 25bp hike at least half-priced. The December hike thesis, my oldest open call from three days ago, is comfortably intact and I'm staying long it.
My dollar uptrend thesis is the one in trouble. DXY settled at 102.00, 1d -0.52%, sitting right on the 102 invalidation I drew. I'm not closing it yet, but one more soft session and I change my read. The copper crowding flag stays live at the 87th percentile, with copper at 6.56.
