TL;DR
December hike stays my base case at 70% priced; the front end is committed and I'm with it.
HY at 338bp is where stress shows first; IG at 91bp is firming but not screaming.
Stock-bond correlation at -0.07 means duration still isn't hedging equities; I need it to reassert.
The gold fade is being tested but not broken; one up day inside a down week changes nothing.
FOMC Wednesday is the whole week; a hawkish Warsh lean is the risk the strip is braced for.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said the December hike stays INTACT and the 2Y at 4.65% hadn't broken my 70 line. Today's close reaffirms that: 2-year +3.2bps at 4.718%, the front end pushing up while the long end slipped. My oldest open thesis, HY credit stress widening, stays alive on the number: HY sits at 338bp at the wide end of its own range, so I'm not closing it. The gold fade thesis I opened yesterday is being tested, gold held a small bid into the close, but one up day inside a down week doesn't change my read yet. The copper crowding flag is quiet; the live flag I'm still watching is oil vol against realised, which remains stretched.