Today's Tear Sheets
The full daily pack is attached below · six PDFs generated from the same computed data set as this note:
Macro Regime · curve regimes, growth x inflation quadrant, breadth, credit, vol term structure, liquidity, stock-bond correlation, crypto cross-asset, housing
Fixed Income · UST complex, global curves, Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ implied policy paths, global 2Y and 10Y panels
Equities · index pages, relatives, vol suite, global relatives, Mag7+ quant sheet, options surfaces
FX · majors dashboards, correlations, COT positioning, crosses
Commodities · energy, metals, agriculture, COT crowding, term structure
Crypto · BTC ladders, ETH, macro correlations, ETF flow proxy
TL;DR
Long the hike story, November at around 70% is the first hike half-priced and no cut sits on the strip.
Rate vol is the tail, MOVE jumped +16.9pts on the day and I'm watching whether it bleeds into equity vol.
Credit is my anchor, IG at 77bp flags no stress, invalidation stays 90bp.
SPX book stays GATED at 76 conviction, narrow breadth keeps me from chasing the tape either way.
The 2s10s at 25bp decides my Fed-path doubt, steepening confirms the strip has overshot.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I stayed long the hike story, with November the first month half-priced and no cut anywhere on the strip. This morning's tape confirms it hard: the front-end sold off again, MOVE jumped +16.9pts on the day, and the terminal repriced another +17bp. My oldest open thesis, that investment grade credit stays bid below its 90bp mean, is INTACT, IG sits at 77bp and is not corroborating any equity anxiety. I'm keeping the hike read on and letting the 2s10s tell me when the long-end starts doubting the path. The Bitcoin correlation flag from yesterday is still live at 0.44, and it still dents my equity hedges.
What Changed
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Session 2026-09-23. Sectors plus the unexplained remainder sum to the index move, and the sector split accounts for 81% of it.
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
US STOCKS SOLD AS GLOBAL YIELDS SURGE, RUT THE CLEAR UNDERPERFORMER, ALL MAJORS RED
FED'S BARR SAYS FURTHER RATE HIKES LIKELY NEEDED FOR TIMELY RETURN TO 2% TARGET
WOEFUL 5-YEAR AUCTION AND HAWKISH FED SPEAK DRIVE UST YIELDS HIGHER ACROSS CURVE
WHITE HOUSE DENIES POLITICO REPORT OF 90-DAY US DIESEL EXPORT BAN
BESSENT SAYS US-CHINA TRADE TRUCE EXTENDED TO JANUARY 10TH, XI ARRIVES FOR STATE VISIT
FED'S GOOLSBEE WARNS OIL SUPPLY SHOCKS MAY HAVE PERSISTENT INFLATION EFFECT
NIKKEI 225 OUTPERFORMS ON TECH CATCH-UP AS JAPAN RETURNS FROM HOLIDAY
The growth read is the problem for anyone hoping the Fed backs off. Flash PMI data came in strong and inflationary, with Services at 58.7 and Manufacturing at 57, both well above consensus. That is not a backdrop that lets the front-end price cuts. It is exactly why the strip keeps grinding hawkish.
Cross-Asset Read
The damage on the day sat in the rate-sensitive corners. Consumer Discretionary took off -0.16pp and Tech -0.15pp, the two largest drags, while Energy was the lone real contributor at +0.03pp as crude held up. That is a yield story rather than a growth scare, and the small-cap underperformance fits it with the Russell down -1.77%.
The correlation that matters flipped: SPX versus Bitcoin is now 0.44 against 0.11 a month back, flagged as a BIG SHIFT. If crypto and equities move together, Bitcoin is no longer a clean diversifier for the equity book and my hedges lose bite there.
Credit refuses to play along. IG at 77bp sits at the tight end of its own range, well under the 89bp mean, and HY at 268bp is priced as if default risk has been abolished. No stress signal anywhere in credit.
Rates & Fed Pricing
No month on the strip has a cut half-priced, so this is entirely about hikes. November is the first month with a 25bp hike at least half-priced at around 70% odds, and December is essentially locked at 100%. Cumulatively the strip carries +93bp to the 2028-01 peak at 4.81%, with the trough right at the front at 3.89%. The terminal repriced +124.5bp on the week, a big move driven by strong PMIs, hawkish Barr and Goolsbee, and a poor 5-year auction. I still don't think the full path gets realised, my thesis there sits with US 2Y now at 4.71%. The 2s10s steepened +5bp on the day to 25bp, and if that steepening continues it tells me the long-end doubts the short-end can deliver everything priced. That is what would keep me patient rather than chase the hike.
The Week Ahead
Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims (cons 201, prev 196). A soft print barely dents the hike story given the PMI strength, a jump matters more for how it hits the front-end.
Thursday, Fed Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson all speak. This is the one that moves my read, more Barr-style hawkishness cements the November hike.
Thursday, New Home Sales (cons 0.62, prev 0.607). With mortgage rates at 7.12%, weak housing is expected and won't change my view.
Thursday, German Ifo and the SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank decisions, context for the global bond rout.
Friday, UN General Assembly and Xi's state visit, watch the China trade headlines into the Thursday dinner.
Tradeable Levels
Pivots off the last completed session (2026-09-23). Levels marked * sit within 0.6 x ATR14 of the close.
WTI Crude priced off a session whose range was under a third of normal travel, so that board is compressed and nearly every level sits in reach. Weekend crypto and half-day holiday sessions do this; treat the levels as loose rather than precise.
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positive IV-RV = options priced rich to what the tape is delivering (UNG and META richest today); negative = vol going cheap (NVDA and SLV). Percentiles are each name's own archive history.
Disclaimer
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