What do you think about going long on Chinese companies who export cheap consumer goods like PDD AND BABA? They seem pretty undervalued right now and their financials look solid.
I haven’t looked into companies like that so wouldn’t be able to give an honest opinion, however, there is some upside potential in China in my opinion over the course of 2025, just depends what sector you’re looking at.
I agree with the JPY idea. But it's not feasible to be short USDJPY for that long of a time horizon in regular FX positions given the negative carry trade. CHFJPY looks a little better, less negative swaps, SNB likely to bring rates back to 0% while the BoJ instead hikes a bit further. Better than USDJPY in my opinion, and after all if USDJPY goes down because of growth concerns in the US then that means it's a broad "risk off" macro flow and so all JPY pairs should go down with it.
It depends, I personally see the extra gain in USDJPY vs CHFJPY meaning that I’m happy to take the negative carry which will take some of my PnL. Not to say that CHFJPY won’t be great, because I think it will. The growth concerns I’m referring to are U.S. based so I don’t see it affecting risk appetite globally
What do you think about going long on Chinese companies who export cheap consumer goods like PDD AND BABA? They seem pretty undervalued right now and their financials look solid.
I haven’t looked into companies like that so wouldn’t be able to give an honest opinion, however, there is some upside potential in China in my opinion over the course of 2025, just depends what sector you’re looking at.
I agree with the JPY idea. But it's not feasible to be short USDJPY for that long of a time horizon in regular FX positions given the negative carry trade. CHFJPY looks a little better, less negative swaps, SNB likely to bring rates back to 0% while the BoJ instead hikes a bit further. Better than USDJPY in my opinion, and after all if USDJPY goes down because of growth concerns in the US then that means it's a broad "risk off" macro flow and so all JPY pairs should go down with it.
It depends, I personally see the extra gain in USDJPY vs CHFJPY meaning that I’m happy to take the negative carry which will take some of my PnL. Not to say that CHFJPY won’t be great, because I think it will. The growth concerns I’m referring to are U.S. based so I don’t see it affecting risk appetite globally
Thank you!