nice read Joe, with EM countries front running hike prompting EM FX Carry trade and TCMB holding rates at such high level why wasn't that yield differential evident in the TRYUSD
Thanks Emmanuel, great questions. I believe there's many complexities behind the Turkish Lira and it's valuation. Whilst high rates in Turkey are attractive we have to remember the type of inflows it attracts (1) very speculative and (2) volatile/extremely short term capital flows, which would quickly sell out of the Lira as soaring inflation levels eat up into the profitability of the carry trade. Other factors such as the countries fiscal health, ability to maintain economic growth amidst extreme monetary conditions also weigh into investor decisions when looking at the TRY
nice read Joe, with EM countries front running hike prompting EM FX Carry trade and TCMB holding rates at such high level why wasn't that yield differential evident in the TRYUSD
Thanks Emmanuel, great questions. I believe there's many complexities behind the Turkish Lira and it's valuation. Whilst high rates in Turkey are attractive we have to remember the type of inflows it attracts (1) very speculative and (2) volatile/extremely short term capital flows, which would quickly sell out of the Lira as soaring inflation levels eat up into the profitability of the carry trade. Other factors such as the countries fiscal health, ability to maintain economic growth amidst extreme monetary conditions also weigh into investor decisions when looking at the TRY