Today's Tear Sheets
The full daily pack is attached below · six PDFs generated from the same computed data set as this note:
Macro Regime · curve regimes, growth x inflation quadrant, breadth, credit, vol term structure, liquidity, stock-bond correlation, crypto cross-asset, housing
Fixed Income · UST complex, global curves, Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ implied policy paths, global 2Y and 10Y panels
Equities · index pages, relatives, vol suite, global relatives, Mag7+ quant sheet, options surfaces
FX · majors dashboards, correlations, COT positioning, crosses
Commodities · energy, metals, agriculture, COT crowding, term structure
Crypto · BTC ladders, ETH, macro correlations, ETF flow proxy
Every number in this note is computed by the desk's own systematic engines across 44 markets, then read in plain language. Five minutes and you're caught up.
In This Issue
Where We Stand
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
Cross-Asset Read
Rates & Fed Pricing
Bottom Line
The Week Ahead
Tradeable Levels
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Where We Stand
Yesterday we said our crude hedge waits on every strike headline while WTI ran hot, and the short-oil-against-equities thesis opened 6 September remains intact this morning. Brent reclaimed 100 dollars per barrel for the first time since July as US-Iran and Saudi-Yemen tensions escalated, and with SPX vs Crude correlation at -0.66 the hedge is doing its job. We keep the crude short flagged and stay short gold into the two-day inflation read.
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Where the index move came from on 2026-09-08. Each sector's day multiplied by its approximate index weight gives its contribution in percentage points. The sectors and the unexplained remainder sum exactly to the index move, and the sector split accounts for 96% of it.
The remainder is not an error term to ignore. Index weights drift and sector ETFs are not the index's own constituents, so a decomposition of this kind never closes on its own. Reading the residual is how you know whether the sector story explains the day or only decorates it.
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Assets whose regime is sticky (Markov persistence 6+ days): trends run, so the momentum engine sets the direction, and conviction rises with the strength bar.
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Assets whose regime is choppy : trends get faded, so the mean-reversion engine sets the direction against the stretch from the 21-day average.
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
*BRENT TOPS USD 100/BBL FIRST TIME SINCE JULY ON US-IRAN, SAUDI-YEMEN ESCALATION*
*TRUMP SAYS WAR WITH IRAN WILL END AFTER ELECTION, OIL PRICES TO FALL WHEN US "WINS"*
*IAEA BOARD REPORTS IRAN TO UN SECURITY COUNCIL FOR NON-PROLIFERATION BREACHES*
*ECB EXPECTED TO RAISE RATES AT TODAY'S MEETING, LAGARDE SPEAKS*
*BOJ'S MASU: EXPECT CONTINUED HIKES GIVEN ACCOMMODATIVE CONDITIONS*
*US PPI, JOBLESS CLAIMS DUE TODAY; CPI FRIDAY THE MAIN EVENT*
Several explosions were heard in Iran's Qeshm and Sirik, with sounds reportedly originating from the sea, while IRNA cited official sources that areas in Sirik were hit by projectiles, though SNN reported no points in Sirik were targeted. Our read is that the supply risk premium is real while Hormuz traffic thins. Strait of Hormuz commodity vessel traffic fell to 7 on Wednesday against a 10-day average of around 14.
The labour print still argues against any easing. Non-farm payrolls landed at 162 against consensus 56, roughly triple expectations, and that is why the strip prices hikes not cuts. We treat the 3.1% average hourly earnings print, above the 3% call, as the wage floor that keeps the Fed leaning tight.
Cross-Asset Read
Financials did the damage on the last session, XLF -1.38% for -0.18pp, with discretionary at -0.15pp close behind. Cyclical leadership rolling over tells us the tape is derisking into data. Only energy closed green, and that lines up with the crude bid.
The scoreboard move that matters is gold, up +0.77% on the day as its correlation to the dollar deepened to -0.57 from -0.41 a month ago. SPX vs Crude at -0.66 versus -0.57 a month ago is the shift we care about; the oil hedge against equity risk works again, and we would keep it on. Gold rising with a firmer inverse-dollar link does not change our short; we treat 4393.2 as the level that tests it.
IG OAS sits at 81bp, the middle of its own range, so credit is neutral and not the marginal story today. HY at 267bp is priced as if default risk has been abolished. If HY OAS reclaims 133bp toward the cycle peak, then the equity derisking has real teeth; until then, our IG long carry stance holds with invalidation at 90.
Rates & Fed Pricing
No month on the strip has a cut half-priced, so the debate is purely about hikes. September carries a 25bp hike at roughly 64% odds, and November firms to near 90%. The strip peaks at 4.3% in September 2027 for +66.5bp cumulative versus an EFFR of 3.63%.
The terminal repriced +62bp on the week, a hawkish shift driven by the payrolls beat and the crude-led yield backup. 10yr UST futures stayed subdued after yields rose alongside higher oil and the Treasury's long-end buyback of a maximum 6 billion dollars of 10yr-20yr coupons, above prior guidance but short of some 10 billion dollar expectations. Our read is the curve stays flat at 41bp while hawkish pricing persists; the 2s10s flattener thesis opened 6 September remains intact.
If Friday's core CPI prints above the 2.4% consensus, then the November hike hardens and the terminal extends; until then, we do not chase October and wait on the print.
Bottom Line
Brent above 100 rewards our short-oil-versus-equities hedge, which holds into CPI.
The 2s10s at 41bp refuses to break and the flattener extends.
Gold fades on a -0.57 dollar correlation and we stay short.
September hike near 64% waits; we do not chase before Friday.
IG carry at 81bp holds with invalidation pinned at 90.
The Week Ahead
Thursday PPI: MoM above 0.4% consensus hardens the hawkish strip and we add to the flattener; a soft print near 0% and we hold size.
Thursday Jobless Claims: a print above 205 consensus revives the labour-cooling case and we lighten; near 206 prior keeps the tight-Fed read intact.
Thursday Existing Home Sales: below 3.98 consensus and the rate-drag story grows; above 4.06 prior and we ignore it for the stance.
Thursday ECB and Lagarde: a hike as expected leaves EUR/USD pinned at 1.16; a surprise hold and we reassess the dollar leg.
Friday CPI: core above 2.4% consensus extends the terminal and we stay short gold; a downside miss on the 3.4% headline and we change our read on the hike path.
Tradeable Levels
Floor-trader pivots off the last completed session (2026-09-09), with the 14-day average true range as the day's expected travel. Levels marked * sit inside 0.6 x ATR of the close, which is the band the session usually reaches. These are reference geometry drawn from the market's own range, not a directional call.
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positive IV-RV = options priced rich to what the tape is delivering (UNG and USO richest today); negative = vol going cheap (TSLA and NVDA). Percentile ranks unlock at 60 archived sessions per name · currently 50/60 · the archive deepens automatically every build.
Disclaimer
The information in this publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, derivative, digital asset, or other financial instrument, nor a recommendation suited to any specific reader. All figures are drawn from the day's computed data set at the time of generation and may be delayed, revised, or superseded. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal; past performance and historical relationships do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. The author may hold positions in instruments discussed. This publication is licensed for the personal use of the subscriber only: redistribution, reproduction, or resale in any form is prohibited. © 2026 MARKET MACRO HUB. All rights reserved.