TL;DR
Front-end fade stays on while the 2Y holds below 4.78% weekly; the strip is 31bp too light on hikes (structural, months).
Today's 2Y rise is hawkish growth repricing confirmed by it rising while oil fell; there is no safety bid in it (structural, months).
Protection lives in options, because duration cannot hedge equities with the stock-bond link flipped (positioning, days to weeks).
Crowded downside hedges at the 83rd to 98th percentile bleed and squeeze if risk holds through CPI; still not defensive (positioning, days to weeks).
Tomorrow's core CPI decides it: a hot core presses the fade, a soft core is the only bull defence (structural, months).
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said the front-end fade stays on while the 2Y holds below 4.78% weekly, and that the strip was too light on hikes (structural, months). Today's close confirms it. Equities closed firmly in the green as the post-midterm rout continued to unwind, and the Treasury curve flattened with front-end yields rising while the long end was little changed. The oldest open thesis, the crowded-hedge squeeze from 5 November, is doing exactly what it said it would: VIX sits at 19.93 and the panic has drained, so those hedges bleed. My front-end thesis is INTACT with the 2Y at 4.51%, miles below the 4.78% invalidation. I'm not changing anything. The copper crowding is not on my sheet today, but the washed-out specs in crude, EUR and natural gas are still live and I'm keeping them in view. Every view here stays a watch into tomorrow's CPI, and I am not pressing any of it.