Today's Tear Sheets
The full daily pack is attached below · six PDFs generated from the same computed data set as this note:
Macro Regime · curve regimes, growth x inflation quadrant, breadth, credit, vol term structure, liquidity, stock-bond correlation, crypto cross-asset, housing
Fixed Income · UST complex, global curves, Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ implied policy paths, global 2Y and 10Y panels
Equities · index pages, relatives, vol suite, global relatives, Mag7+ quant sheet, options surfaces
FX · majors dashboards, correlations, COT positioning, crosses
Commodities · energy, metals, agriculture, COT crowding, term structure
Crypto · BTC ladders, ETH, macro correlations, ETF flow proxy
As there was issues attaching the tearsheets, please copy and paste this link onto your browser.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Dc1DhAs6XHX-IstiNqmWCEfTt5N0bA2W
Every number in this note is computed by the desk's own systematic engines across 44 markets, then read in plain language. Five minutes and you're caught up.
In This Issue
Where We Stand
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
Cross-Asset Read
Rates & Fed Pricing
Bottom Line
The Week Ahead
Tradeable Levels
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Where We Stand
Yesterday we said the front-end selloff holds with the 2-year up +14bp, and this morning's tape confirms it as short-end and belly yields print new highs on the oil shock. Our oldest live view, the IG credit carry thesis from 28 August, stays intact with OAS at 80bp, well below the 90bp mean that would flip it. We hold short-duration positioning and keep the crude equity hedge extended.
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Where the index move came from on 2026-09-01. Each sector's day multiplied by its approximate index weight gives its contribution in percentage points. The sectors and the unexplained remainder sum exactly to the index move, and the sector split accounts for 0% of it.
The remainder is not an error term to ignore. Index weights drift and sector ETFs are not the index's own constituents, so a decomposition of this kind never closes on its own. Reading the residual is how you know whether the sector story explains the day or only decorates it.
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Assets whose regime is sticky (Markov persistence 6+ days): trends run, so the momentum engine sets the direction, and conviction rises with the strength bar.
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Assets whose regime is choppy : trends get faded, so the mean-reversion engine sets the direction against the stretch from the 21-day average.
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
TRUMP SAYS US STRIKING IRANIAN TARGETS NEAR STRAIT OF HORMUZ, WARNS IRAN WILL BE "TOTALLY WIPED OUT" IF IT RETALIATES
IRAN LAUNCHES RETALIATORY MISSILES AT US BASES; TASNIM SOURCE SAYS RESPONSE WILL BE "MULTIPLE TIMES" THE ATTACKS
WTI OCT SETTLES +5.7%, BRENT +5% AS US-IRAN STRIKES ESCALATE AROUND HORMUZ
FED'S BARR (VOTER): IF INFLATION DOES NOT MODERATE SOON, "TIME FOR AN INTEREST RATE HIKE"
US ISM MANUFACTURING (AUG) 54.6 VS EXP 55.2; JOLTS 7.271M VS EXP 7.3M
USD FIRMER, DXY 99.68; SPOT GOLD -2.7%, US 10YR YIELD 4.8%
The growth read softened at the margin without breaking. US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) came in at 54.6 versus expected 55.2, previous 55.6, and JOLTS undershot at 7.271M. We treat this as a warm expansion cooling one notch and holding above stall speed.
The inflation impulse is the story that matters into the September meeting. Barr's line that a hike comes if inflation does not moderate lands the same week oil settles more than four dollars higher, and that keeps the front end offered.
Cross-Asset Read
On sectors, XLK dragged hardest into 1 September with a contribution of -0.49pp, and XLY took off -0.19pp; the index fell -0.33% on the day. Leadership is coming out of growth and discretionary, which fits a tape paying up for energy and yield. We would not over-read a sector split whose residual runs +0.51pp against the move.
The scoreboard move that matters is crude, up +10.79% on the week against an SPX that edged -0.33% on the day. Oil prices settled more than USD 4 higher per barrel, short-end and belly yields hit new year-to-date highs, the dollar was firmer, while gold declined. The SPX-crude correlation flagged BIG SHIFT at -0.56 now versus -0.18 a month ago; our read is that an oil hedge against equity risk works again, and we keep it on.
On credit, IG OAS at 80bp sits at the tight end of its own range, a carry regime where credit refuses to corroborate any equity anxiety. HY at 263bp is priced as if default risk has been abolished. If OAS breaks decisively above the 90bp mean, then we close the carry thesis; until then, we stay long carry.
Rates & Fed Pricing
No month on the strip has a cut half-priced, so the debate is entirely about the pace of hikes. Fed's Barr said that if inflation does not moderate soon, it will be time for an interest rate hike, while he stated that inflation remains too high. The first month with a hike at least half-priced is September at roughly 72% odds, with November running near 92%.
Cumulative pricing runs +18bp through September and +33.5bp through December, with the strip peaking at 4.28% in September 2027, worth +65.5bp against an EFFR of 3.63%. The terminal repriced +38bp on the week as the oil shock fed the inflation leg. That weekly move is why we hold short duration rather than fade the selloff.
If ISM Services on Thursday prints above the 54.3 consensus, then the hike path firms further and we add to the front-end short; until then, we sit with the current size.
Bottom Line
Front-end selloff holds with the 2-year up +10bp on the week as the September hike hardens.
The IG carry regime holds at 80bp, below the 90bp mean that flips it.
Our crude equity hedge extends as the SPX-crude correlation sits at -0.56.
The crowded gold long waits, specs at 56.9% of open interest and vulnerable after a -5.02% week.
The 2s10s curve watches at 41bp, flat +2bp on the day into Thursday's data.
The Week Ahead
Wednesday EIA crude stocks (cons -1.1): a deeper draw with prices already bid keeps the crude hedge extended; a build against the oil shock would make us fade the move.
Thursday Fed Waller and Hammack speeches: an echo of Barr's hawkish line hardens our short-duration stance; a dovish tilt makes us reassess the September pricing.
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims (cons 205, prev 203): a print near or below consensus keeps the warm-growth read and our short duration; a jump above 208 challenges it and we trim.
Thursday ISM Services PMI (cons 54.3, prev 54.1): a beat confirms warm growth and we add to the front-end short; a miss below 54.1 makes us wait.
Friday Average Hourly Earnings YoY (cons 3%, prev 3.2%): a hotter wage print feeds the hike thesis and we stay short duration; a cooling to 3% or below makes us pause the add.
Tradeable Levels
Floor-trader pivots off the last completed session (2026-08-31 / 2026-09-01), with the 14-day average true range as the day's expected travel. Levels marked * sit inside 0.6 x ATR of the close, which is the band the session usually reaches. These are reference geometry drawn from the market's own range, not a directional call.
Bitcoin priced off a session whose range was under a third of normal travel, so that board is compressed and nearly every level sits in reach. Weekend crypto and half-day holiday sessions do this; treat the levels as loose rather than precise.
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positive IV-RV = options priced rich to what the tape is delivering (UNG and AVGO richest today); negative = vol going cheap (NVDA and GLD). Percentile ranks unlock at 60 archived sessions per name · currently 44/60 · the archive deepens automatically every build.
Disclaimer
The information in this publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, derivative, digital asset, or other financial instrument, nor a recommendation suited to any specific reader. All figures are drawn from the day's computed data set at the time of generation and may be delayed, revised, or superseded. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal; past performance and historical relationships do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. The author may hold positions in instruments discussed. This publication is licensed for the personal use of the subscriber only: redistribution, reproduction, or resale in any form is prohibited. © 2026 MARKET MACRO HUB. All rights reserved.