Today's Tear Sheets
The full daily pack is attached below · six PDFs generated from the same computed data set as this note:
Macro Regime · curve regimes, growth x inflation quadrant, breadth, credit, vol term structure, liquidity, stock-bond correlation, crypto cross-asset, housing
Fixed Income · UST complex, global curves, Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ implied policy paths, global 2Y and 10Y panels
Equities · index pages, relatives, vol suite, global relatives, Mag7+ quant sheet, options surfaces
FX · majors dashboards, correlations, COT positioning, crosses
Commodities · energy, metals, agriculture, COT crowding, term structure
Crypto · BTC ladders, ETH, macro correlations, ETF flow proxy
Every number in this note is computed by the desk's own systematic engines across 44 markets, then read in plain language. Five minutes and you're caught up.
In This Issue
Where We Stand
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Stock-Bond Correlation
Event Watch · US payrolls today
Main Developments in Macro
Cross-Asset Read
Rates & Fed Pricing
Bottom Line
The Week Ahead
Tradeable Levels
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positioning Book · Friday COT
Where We Stand
Yesterday we held the front-end selloff with the 2-year up +20bp on the week as the September hike hardened; Waller has forced us to soften that read overnight. We are not reversing, the 2026-10 hike still carries ~72% odds, but the strip no longer prices September as done. We treat the front-end thesis, opened three days ago, as intact but now two-way into CPI.
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Where the index move came from on 2026-09-03. Each sector's day multiplied by its approximate index weight gives its contribution in percentage points. The sectors and the unexplained remainder sum exactly to the index move, and the sector split accounts for 0% of it.
The remainder is not an error term to ignore. Index weights drift and sector ETFs are not the index's own constituents, so a decomposition of this kind never closes on its own. Reading the residual is how you know whether the sector story explains the day or only decorates it.
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Assets whose regime is sticky (Markov persistence 6+ days): trends run, so the momentum engine sets the direction, and conviction rises with the strength bar.
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Assets whose regime is choppy : trends get faded, so the mean-reversion engine sets the direction against the stretch from the 21-day average.
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Stock-Bond Correlation
Rolling correlation of S&P 500 and TLT daily returns. The 30-day reads 0.48 against 0.43 on the 90-day: positive · bonds are NOT hedging equity risk. This is the number that decides whether a 60/40 book is diversified or simply levered to one factor.
Event Watch · US payrolls today
reference events avg move median closed higher avg abs move
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S&P 500 109 +0.10% +0.25% 62% 0.93%
US 10Y yield 113 +0.8bp +1.9bp 58% 5.7bp
Dollar (DXY) 113 -0.02% -0.02% 46% 0.37%
Gold 110 +0.08% +0.13% 55% 0.65%Into the print the book is short duration, short gold, long USD . Event-day distributions above are close-to-close over the historical set; they describe typical ranges, not a forecast for this release.
Main Developments in Macro
*WALLER SAYS HE WOULD SUPPORT A SEPTEMBER HOLD IF AUGUST INFLATION SHOWS CONTINUED PROGRESS, WOULD CONSIDER A HIKE IF HOT*
*US NONFARM PAYROLLS +162K VS EXP +56K; UNEMPLOYMENT 4.1%, PARTICIPATION 61.6%*
*ISM SERVICES 55.4 VS EXP 54.3; PRICES PAID ACCELERATE TO 72.6*
*DXY -0.6% TO 99.01 AS MONEY MARKETS RETURN TO 50/50 SEPTEMBER HOLD/HIKE*
*NETANYAHU TELLS GENERAL STAFF OVERTHROW OF IRANIAN REGIME IS "IMMINENT"; HOUTHIS LAUNCH WESTERN-COAST OFFENSIVE*
*BITCOIN +5.8% ON THE SESSION, ETHEREUM +5.1%*
The growth signal is not cooling. ISM Services printed 55.4 against a 54.3 consensus, with new orders at 60.9 and business activity at 61.7. Payrolls at 162 against 56 expected confirm the no-landing tape, so a September hold would be a data-dependent pause.
The inflation side is why this stays live. ISM Services prices accelerated to 72.6 from 70.3. Our read is that services prices at that level keep the hike on the table even as Waller opens the door to waiting one meeting.
Cross-Asset Read
Financials did the heavy lifting Wednesday. XLF added +1.27% on the day for +0.16pp, while tech subtracted with XLK down -1.53% for -0.49pp. Leadership rotating out of tech into banks fits a strip that is pricing higher-for-longer, and we treat that rotation as consistent with our front-end view.
The scoreboard move that matters is crude. WTI sits at 92.03, up +10.16% on the week, while the SPX-crude correlation has shifted to -0.61 from -0.41. That deepening negative correlation is flagged BIG SHIFT-adjacent, and it means our oil hedge against equity risk works again; the crude equity hedge extended thesis stays open. Bitcoin gained +4.96% on the day, but its correlation to SPX has slipped to 0.10 from 0.35, so we do not read the crypto bid as a risk-on tell for equities.
IG OAS sits at 81bp, in the middle of its own range and below the 90bp mean, so credit is neutral and not today's marginal story. HY at 266bp sits at the tight extreme, priced as if default risk has been abolished. If OAS breaks decisively above 90bp, then we cut carry and treat it as the growth crack; until then, we stay long the IG carry regime.
Rates & Fed Pricing
No cut is priced anywhere on the strip. The first month with a hike at least half-priced is 2026-10 at ~72% odds, and December carries ~100%. So the debate Waller reopened is about timing.
The strip peaks at 2027-10 at 4.28%, +65.5bp cumulative over an EFFR of 3.63%, with the trough in 2026-10 at 3.81%. Terminal repriced +56.5bp on the week even as it slipped -3.5bp on the day, so Waller trimmed the front but the week still tightened hard. We treat that weekly move as the dominant signal.
The 2-year holds 4.39% with the 2s10s at 40bp, flattened -7bp on the week. If August CPI shows continued disinflation next Thursday, then September becomes a hold and the front end rallies; until then, we stay leaned to the hike.
Bottom Line
Front-end hike thesis holds with 2026-10 at ~72% odds, softened but not broken by Waller.
Crude equity hedge extends as the SPX-crude correlation sits at -0.61.
The crowded gold long waits, specs at 56.9% of open interest after a -2.59% week.
IG carry regime holds at 81bp, below the 90bp mean that flips it.
The Bitcoin bid fades as a risk tell, its SPX correlation down to 0.10.
The Week Ahead
Wednesday's ADP weekly print watches the labour pulse; a soft number helps the hold case, a firm one hardens the hike.
Thursday's Core PPI (cons 0.3%) is the swing: in line or cooler keeps our two-way stance, a hot upside print re-hardens September and we reload the front-end short.
Thursday's PPI (cons 0.3%, prev 0%) reads pipeline inflation; a benign print supports Waller's patience, an upside surprise challenges it.
Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims (cons 205) tests the low-layoff read; a jump above trend cracks the no-landing tape, in line confirms it.
Thursday's EIA Crude stocks (prev -4.45) matters for the hedge; another large draw keeps crude bid and our oil-versus-equity protection working.
Tradeable Levels
Floor-trader pivots off the last completed session (2026-09-02 / 2026-09-03), with the 14-day average true range as the day's expected travel. Levels marked * sit inside 0.6 x ATR of the close, which is the band the session usually reaches. These are reference geometry drawn from the market's own range, not a directional call.
US 2Y Yield priced off a session whose range was under a third of normal travel, so that board is compressed and nearly every level sits in reach. Weekend crypto and half-day holiday sessions do this; treat the levels as loose rather than precise.
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positive IV-RV = options priced rich to what the tape is delivering (UNG and GOOG richest today); negative = vol going cheap (NVDA and GLD). Percentile ranks unlock at 60 archived sessions per name · currently 45/60 · the archive deepens automatically every build.
Positioning Book · Friday COT
No crowded-and-cracking setups this week · extremes without a price crack are carry, not catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information in this publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, derivative, digital asset, or other financial instrument, nor a recommendation suited to any specific reader. All figures are drawn from the day's computed data set at the time of generation and may be delayed, revised, or superseded. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal; past performance and historical relationships do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. The author may hold positions in instruments discussed. This publication is licensed for the personal use of the subscriber only: redistribution, reproduction, or resale in any form is prohibited. © 2026 MARKET MACRO HUB. All rights reserved.