TL;DR
Still long the December hike near 76%; the minutes and rising inflation expectations keep it alive and soft payrolls haven't broken it.
The curve bull steepened as the front end rallied; I read that as the labour data biting the short end while the long end stayed anchored.
Bitcoin at 0.63 to SPX hedges nothing here, so I'm treating it as pure risk beta.
Gold's tightening link to yields at -0.58 means it sells off with equities now; it's no longer my rate-easing hedge.
Copper longs stretched at the 87th percentile; I'm cautious on chasing any upside there.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said I'm long the December hike near 82% and that soft payrolls hadn't shifted it. Today's close backs that: the strip still puts the December hike around 76%, and FOMC minutes read hawkish on inflation risk, so the conviction holds even with the probability a touch lower. My oldest live thesis, December holds above 75%, stays intact and I'm not touching it. The copper crowding flag I've carried is still live, specs sitting at the 87th percentile, and nothing on the tape today gives me a reason to drop it. IG at 83bp against its 89bp mean still says no broad stress, so I'm reading today's equity weakness as a growth-and-supply story rather than a credit one.
