TL;DR
The strip matches the policy rules almost exactly, so I'm not fading Fed pricing until the 2Y closes the week above 4.78% (structural, months).
January at 63% is the meeting to watch. Thursday's claims and Friday's PPI decide it (structural, months).
Crowded tech hedges are losing money while the momentum book stays long ES. I'm NOT defensive (positioning, days to weeks).
Stocks and yields now move together because of growth, so bonds won't protect equities and I'd use options instead (positioning, days to weeks).
Gold is the only STACKED signal, with all four edges pointing down, so it's the one place where everything lines up (positioning, days to weeks).
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said December was fully priced, the strip matched the rules and the 2Y stayed below 4.78% on a weekly basis (structural, months). Today's close backs that up. The gap between the strip and the rules is -4bp and the 2Y closed at 4.75, so it's holding, but only just. My oldest view is still alive: crowded equity downside hedges lose money as risk holds (positioning, days to weeks). The S&P rose 1.31% while tech hedges stayed in the 95th percentile, and those hedge buyers are the ones paying for it. The dealers short gamma flag is still live, so moves in either direction can run further than usual.