TL;DR
The 2Y closed today ABOVE the 4.78% line. A weekly close above it on Friday means the front end is pricing hikes the data hasn't delivered yet. (structural, months)
The strip still matches the policy rules almost exactly. For the strip to be right, core PCE has to come down from 3.12% to 2.91%, and Friday's PPI is the next test of that. (structural, months)
The week has been a credit week, and today bonds gave equities no protection. Options do the hedging job better than duration while the link between stocks and yields keeps flipping. (positioning, days to weeks)
Gold is still the only STACKED signal, and it sits below every event level. (positioning, days to weeks)
S&P and Nasdaq are only PARTIAL to the downside. That makes them neutral. It doesn't make them bearish. (positioning, days to weeks)
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said the line I was watching for Fed pricing was a weekly 2Y close above 4.78% (structural, months). Today the 2Y closed at 4.88, through that line, so the oldest live thesis is now under real pressure. A daily close is a WARNING. Only the weekly close counts as a break, so Friday's settlement is what I'm watching before the read changes. The Russell uptrend flag I raised yesterday has already faded. The S&P flag turned back the other way within a single session.