TL;DR
Long the December hike at 76% into tomorrow; the core CPI print is the only thing that moves it.
Dollar at 102.2 took a dovish-Williams knock but stays my cleanest macro trend.
Duration beats gold as my equity hedge while gold's correlation to the 10Y sits at -0.56.
The S&P-Bitcoin correlation at 0.64 means crypto is no equity diversifier right now.
Copper crowding flag still live at the 87th percentile; watching for the downside it threatens.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said I'm long the December hike at around 82% and that Wednesday's core is the only print that changes it. Today's close keeps me there. The December hike engine I opened two days ago is still firmly on, with the strip holding 76% odds into the print and the calendar doing nothing to force a rethink. The dollar thesis I opened yesterday took a small knock, with the index back to 102.2, but one soft session on a dovish Williams headline does not break the cleanest trend I have, so I keep it. The copper crowding flag I put up at the 87th percentile is still live, and copper edged lower again today.
