Today's Tear Sheets
The full daily pack is attached below · six PDFs generated from the same computed data set as this note:
Macro Regime · curve regimes, growth x inflation quadrant, breadth, credit, vol term structure, liquidity, stock-bond correlation, crypto cross-asset, housing
Fixed Income · UST complex, global curves, Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ implied policy paths, global 2Y and 10Y panels
Equities · index pages, relatives, vol suite, global relatives, Mag7+ quant sheet, options surfaces
FX · majors dashboards, correlations, COT positioning, crosses
Commodities · energy, metals, agriculture, COT crowding, term structure
Crypto · BTC ladders, ETH, macro correlations, ETF flow proxy
Every number in this note is computed by the desk's own systematic engines across 44 markets, then read in plain language. Five minutes and you're caught up.
In This Issue
Where We Stand
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
Cross-Asset Read
Rates & Fed Pricing
Bottom Line
The Week Ahead
Tradeable Levels
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Where We Stand
Yesterday we let the October hike sit near 60% rather than chase it, and this morning the strip firms that read with October at roughly 64%. Our oldest thesis, the 2s10s flatten opened three days ago, stays alive with the curve at 41bp doing nothing to break it. We treat the S&P 500 engine flip to a flat, mean reversion call, conviction 4/100, as a signal to hold size into inflation data.
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Where the index move came from on 2026-09-08. Each sector's day multiplied by its approximate index weight gives its contribution in percentage points. The sectors and the unexplained remainder sum exactly to the index move, and the sector split accounts for 86% of it.
The remainder is not an error term to ignore. Index weights drift and sector ETFs are not the index's own constituents, so a decomposition of this kind never closes on its own. Reading the residual is how you know whether the sector story explains the day or only decorates it.
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Assets whose regime is sticky (Markov persistence 6+ days): trends run, so the momentum engine sets the direction, and conviction rises with the strength bar.
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Assets whose regime is choppy : trends get faded, so the mean-reversion engine sets the direction against the stretch from the 21-day average.
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
US STRUCK FIVE IRANIAN CRUDE CARRIERS AFTER IRGC MISSILE ATTACKS ON A US NAVY WARSHIP, PER CENTCOM
IRAN FIRED AT LEAST 20 MISSILES AT JORDAN BASES; AMMAN SAYS 18 INTERCEPTED, NO CASUALTIES
TRUMP APPROVES SECTION 338 BAN ON CANADIAN DAIRY, MOST ALCOHOL AND MOTORCYCLES, EFFECTIVE IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS
CHINA PPI FIRMER THAN EXPECTED, CPI IN LINE; FACTORY GATE PRICES ACCELERATE
BESSENT DARES TRADERS TO BET AGAINST HIM ON THE YEN, CLAIMS INSIGHT INTO BOJ MOVES
US SPR CRUDE STOCKS DREW DOWN 1.2MLN BARRELS TO 285.4MLN, LOWEST SINCE 1982
FURTHER REPORTS POINT TO A BOJ RATE HIKE NEXT WEEK
The recent hard data leans firm. Non Farm Payrolls printed 162 against consensus 56, and services held up with ISM Services at 55.4 above the 54.3 consensus. We read that combination as growth holding while wage pressure sticks, which is why we do not fight the hawkish drift into CPI.
Inflation is the swing factor now. Average Hourly Earnings ran 3.1% year on year against a 3% consensus, a touch hot rather than cooling. We think disinflation is stalling. We would not act on it before Friday's CPI because one print reverses the read.
Cross-Asset Read
Health Care did the damage on Tuesday, with XLV down 2.52% for a 0.25pp drag, and Financials added a 0.18pp hit as XLF fell 1.38%. Defensives and banks leading lower tells us the sell was broad, so we treat the tape as rotation.
The scoreboard move that matters is crude. WTI extended gains as the US and Iran exchanged another round of retaliatory strikes, and the SPX versus crude correlation sits at -0.53. Our short oil hedge against equities, opened three days ago at 95.04, still works because that negative link means an oil bid cushions equity risk. The crude hedge remains flagged and we keep it.
IG OAS at 81bp sits in the middle of its own range, below the 90bp mean, so credit is not the marginal story today. HY at 268bp is priced as if default risk has been abolished. If IG breaks decisively through 90bp, then we cut the carry stance; until then, we hold long IG carry.
Rates & Fed Pricing
No cut is priced anywhere on the strip. The first month with a hike at least half-priced is October at about 64% odds, and we let that sit rather than chase after firming it yesterday. November carries roughly 90% odds, so the market treats a hike this autumn as near-settled.
Cumulative tightening builds to +37bp by January 2027, with the strip peaking at 4.3% in October 2027 for +66.5bp versus EFFR and troughing at 3.79% this October. The terminal repriced +62bp on the week, driven by firm payrolls, sticky earnings and the crude-led inflation impulse from the Iran strikes. If Friday's CPI comes in above consensus, then we look for October to push toward the November-style conviction; until then, we hold the flatten and stay long IG carry.
Bottom Line
October hike holds near 64% and we do not chase it before CPI.
The 2s10s flatten extends with the curve at 41bp refusing to break.
Our crude hedge waits on every strike headline while WTI runs +4.81 on the week.
Gold fades as its dollar correlation deepens to -0.58 and we stay short.
The S&P 500 engine flips flat at conviction 4/100 and we size down into data.
The Week Ahead
Wednesday: EIA crude stocks after last week's -4.45 draw; a deeper draw keeps our crude hedge working, a build softens the supply story and we trim.
Thursday: Core PPI MoM at 0.3% consensus; in line holds the hawkish read, a soft print challenges the October hike we are holding.
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims at 205 consensus; near prior keeps growth firm, a jump toward the labour-market worries in the SCE report reopens the dovish case.
Thursday: EIA STEO and ECB's Lagarde; hawkish ECB tone supports the firmer EUR-USD at 1.16, a dovish shift fades it.
Friday: CPI at 334.85 consensus versus 333.92 prior; a hot print extends the flatten and the October hike, a cool print forces us to change our read.
Tradeable Levels
Floor-trader pivots off the last completed session (2026-09-07 / 2026-09-08), with the 14-day average true range as the day's expected travel. Levels marked * sit inside 0.6 x ATR of the close, which is the band the session usually reaches. These are reference geometry drawn from the market's own range, not a directional call.
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positive IV-RV = options priced rich to what the tape is delivering (UNG and GOOG richest today); negative = vol going cheap (NVDA and TSLA). Percentile ranks unlock at 60 archived sessions per name · currently 49/60 · the archive deepens automatically every build.
Disclaimer
The information in this publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, derivative, digital asset, or other financial instrument, nor a recommendation suited to any specific reader. All figures are drawn from the day's computed data set at the time of generation and may be delayed, revised, or superseded. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal; past performance and historical relationships do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. The author may hold positions in instruments discussed. This publication is licensed for the personal use of the subscriber only: redistribution, reproduction, or resale in any form is prohibited. © 2026 MARKET MACRO HUB. All rights reserved.