Today's Tear Sheets
The full daily pack is attached below · six PDFs generated from the same computed data set as this note:
Macro Regime · curve regimes, growth x inflation quadrant, breadth, credit, vol term structure, liquidity, stock-bond correlation, crypto cross-asset, housing
Fixed Income · UST complex, global curves, Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ implied policy paths, global 2Y and 10Y panels
Equities · index pages, relatives, vol suite, global relatives, Mag7+ quant sheet, options surfaces
FX · majors dashboards, correlations, COT positioning, crosses
Commodities · energy, metals, agriculture, COT crowding, term structure
Crypto · BTC ladders, ETH, macro correlations, ETF flow proxy
Every number in this note is computed by the desk's own systematic engines across 44 markets, then read in plain language. Five minutes and you're caught up.
In This Issue
Where We Stand
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
Cross-Asset Read
Rates & Fed Pricing
Bottom Line
The Week Ahead
Tradeable Levels
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Where We Stand
Yesterday we said the October hike holds near 60% and we let it sit rather than chase, and this morning's strip confirms it at roughly 60% odds. We keep the flatten thesis opened 2026-09-06 intact, with 2s10s at 43bp doing nothing to challenge it. The Wheat spec crowding remains flagged as an observation, and we treat it as noise for our own book.
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Where the index move came from on 2026-09-04. Each sector's day multiplied by its approximate index weight gives its contribution in percentage points. The sectors and the unexplained remainder sum exactly to the index move, and the sector split accounts for 80% of it.
The remainder is not an error term to ignore. Index weights drift and sector ETFs are not the index's own constituents, so a decomposition of this kind never closes on its own. Reading the residual is how you know whether the sector story explains the day or only decorates it.
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Assets whose regime is sticky (Markov persistence 6+ days): trends run, so the momentum engine sets the direction, and conviction rises with the strength bar.
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Assets whose regime is choppy : trends get faded, so the mean-reversion engine sets the direction against the stretch from the 21-day average.
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
JAPAN Q2 GDP REVISED UP TO 0.4% QUARTERLY, LABOUR CASH EARNINGS HOT AT 4.7%, BOJ HIKE CASE FIRMS INTO NEXT WEEK
USD/JPY BREAKS BELOW 153.00 AS YEN EXTENDS; KATAYAMA SAYS NO CHANGE TO FOREX STANCE SINCE JOINT INTERVENTION
CHINA AUGUST EXPORTS +25% AND IMPORTS +28.2%, BOTH DOUBLE-DIGIT BUT BELOW CONSENSUS
CANADA RETALIATORY TARIFFS OF 15-50% ON US GOODS TAKE EFFECT; TRUMP TARGETS BOMBARDIER SALES
LME COPPER HITS RECORD ON SUPPLY AND TARIFF FEARS; SPOT GOLD ABOVE USD 4,400
IRAN WARNS OF PERSIAN GULF MARITIME EXCLUSION ZONE; WTI EXTENDS AFTER WEEKEND VESSEL ATTACKS
BOE'S BAILEY, RAMSDEN, GREENE AND TAYLOR ALL SCHEDULED; ECB'S ELDERSON DUE
The US prints keep the growth read firm. Non Farm Payrolls came in at 162 against a consensus of 56, and ISM Services PMI hit 55.4 versus 54.3 expected. That is a labour market beating low bars while services accelerate, which is why the front end can price a hike rather than a cut.
Wage data leans the same way. Average Hourly Earnings ran 3.1% year-on-year, above the 3% consensus. We read the growth-inflation mix as sticky enough to keep higher-for-longer alive.
Cross-Asset Read
Leadership stayed narrow on 4 September. XLK added +0.23pp and XLI +0.03pp, the only two positive contributions worth naming, while XLY dragged -0.15pp; the split accounts for 80% of the index move, so we treat the residual as real and do not force the sectors to sum. Growth carried a down tape, which tells us the selling was defensive rotation across sectors.
The scoreboard move that matters is Gold vs DXY, flagged as a deepening at -0.60 now against -0.40 a month ago. That deepening means a firmer dollar bites gold harder, and we would keep fading gold as it slips. Crude sits +9.32 on the week, and with SPX vs Crude at -0.53 the oil hedge against equity risk still works for us.
Credit is not the story. IG OAS sits at 81bp in the middle of its own range, 9bp inside the 90bp mean, so we hold the carry. HY at 268bp is priced as if default risk has been abolished. If IG breaks decisively above 90bp, then we cut the carry stance; until then, we stay long carry.
Rates & Fed Pricing
No month on the strip has a cut half-priced, so the question is the hike. October 2026 is the first month with a 25bp hike at least half-priced at around 60% odds, and November carries roughly 84%. The two beats above keep that path honest.
The strip peaks at 4.24% in October 2027, +61bp cumulative over an EFFR of 3.63%, with the trough at 3.78%. Terminal repriced +56.5bp on the week, a decisive hawkish shove we tie to sticky services and firm payrolls. The 2Y edged -5bp today, and we read that front-end bid as a pause in the repricing that should resume.
If PPI on Thursday prints above the 0.4% consensus, then we add to the flatten; until then, we let the front end sit. We would not chase October here because 60% is already close to fair.
Bottom Line
The October hike holds near 60% and we let it sit rather than chase.
The flatten extends with 2s10s at 43bp doing nothing to break it.
IG carry holds until a decisive move through the 90bp mean.
The crude hedge waits on every energy headline while the week gain reads +9.32.
Gold fades as its dollar correlation deepens to -0.60.
The Week Ahead
Wednesday ADP Weekly: a soft print near the prior 11.75 keeps the front-end pause; a firm one revives the hike chase.
Thursday PPI MoM: above 0.4% consensus adds to our flatten; at or below 0% keeps us letting the strip sit.
Thursday Core PPI MoM: above 0.3% consensus hardens higher-for-longer; below it softens the sticky-inflation read.
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims: a rise past 205 consensus cracks the labour firmness; a hold below it confirms our growth read.
Thursday EIA Crude Stocks: another draw near the prior -4.45 keeps crude bid and the oil hedge live; a build fades it.
Tradeable Levels
Floor-trader pivots off the last completed session (2026-09-04 / 2026-09-06), with the 14-day average true range as the day's expected travel. Levels marked * sit inside 0.6 x ATR of the close, which is the band the session usually reaches. These are reference geometry drawn from the market's own range, not a directional call.
Bitcoin priced off a session whose range was under a third of normal travel, so that board is compressed and nearly every level sits in reach. Weekend crypto and half-day holiday sessions do this; treat the levels as loose rather than precise.
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positive IV-RV = options priced rich to what the tape is delivering (UNG and GOOG richest today); negative = vol going cheap (NVDA and TSLA). Percentile ranks unlock at 60 archived sessions per name · currently 48/60 · the archive deepens automatically every build.
Disclaimer
The information in this publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, derivative, digital asset, or other financial instrument, nor a recommendation suited to any specific reader. All figures are drawn from the day's computed data set at the time of generation and may be delayed, revised, or superseded. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal; past performance and historical relationships do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. The author may hold positions in instruments discussed. This publication is licensed for the personal use of the subscriber only: redistribution, reproduction, or resale in any form is prohibited. © 2026 MARKET MACRO HUB. All rights reserved.
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