TL;DR
Still long the December hike near 78%; Waller and Musalem both argued today that more tightening is coming.
Gold has stopped hedging rates at -0.58 to the 10y, so I treat it as a growth asset that sells with equities.
Today's slide was a tech derate while breadth stayed positive under a -0.19pp drag from Technology.
Copper stays a no-chase at the 87th percentile, and its regime just flipped to mixed.
Next real test is Wednesday's CPI at 3.4% prior; a hot core is what keeps the hiking strip honest.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said the December hike was still my call near 76%, kept alive by the minutes and sticky inflation expectations even with soft payrolls. Today's close doesn't break it. December pricing on the strip sits around 78%, and Waller plus Musalem both spent the session arguing more hikes are needed. So the December hike thesis, the oldest open view I'm engaging, stays intact and I'm not touching it. On gold, I flagged yesterday that its link to yields at -0.58 means it sells with equities now rather than hedging rate moves, and nothing today changes that read. The copper crowding flag is still live at the 87th percentile, and copper's regime just slipped from uptrend to mixed, which only reinforces why I won't chase it.
