Today's Tear Sheets
The full daily pack is attached below · six PDFs generated from the same computed data set as this note:
Macro Regime · curve regimes, growth x inflation quadrant, breadth, credit, vol term structure, liquidity, stock-bond correlation, crypto cross-asset, housing
Fixed Income · UST complex, global curves, Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ implied policy paths, global 2Y and 10Y panels
Equities · index pages, relatives, vol suite, global relatives, Mag7+ quant sheet, options surfaces
FX · majors dashboards, correlations, COT positioning, crosses
Commodities · energy, metals, agriculture, COT crowding, term structure
Crypto · BTC ladders, ETH, macro correlations, ETF flow proxy
Every number in this note is computed by the desk's own systematic engines across 44 markets, then read in plain language. Five minutes and you're caught up.
In This Issue
Where We Stand
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
Cross-Asset Read
Rates & Fed Pricing
Bottom Line
The Week Ahead
Tradeable Levels
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positioning Book · Friday COT
Where We Stand
Yesterday we said Brent above 100 rewards our short-oil-versus-equities hedge, and this morning's tape confirms it with WTI at 103.21 and the geopolitical bid intact. Our oldest running view, the flattener opened five days ago, survives with the 2s10s at 40bp, so the flattener thesis extends and we defend it on the +4bp move in the 2Y. The book logged a call change on EUR/USD today, and we treat this as the session's real story into Friday's CPI.
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Where the index move came from on 2026-09-10. Each sector's day multiplied by its approximate index weight gives its contribution in percentage points. The sectors and the unexplained remainder sum exactly to the index move, and the sector split accounts for 65% of it.
The remainder is not an error term to ignore. Index weights drift and sector ETFs are not the index's own constituents, so a decomposition of this kind never closes on its own. Reading the residual is how you know whether the sector story explains the day or only decorates it.
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Assets whose regime is sticky (Markov persistence 6+ days): trends run, so the momentum engine sets the direction, and conviction rises with the strength bar.
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Assets whose regime is choppy : trends get faded, so the mean-reversion engine sets the direction against the stretch from the 21-day average.
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END AFTER US MIDTERM ELECTIONS, WON'T GO FULL INTO IRAN
IRGC NAVY DECLARES STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED AND UNDER ITS CONTROL
US 30YR YIELD HIT 5.366%, HIGHEST SINCE 2007; 10YR TOPPED 4.954%
CRUDE COMPLEX GAINED CIRCA USD 7/BBL ON BAB AL-MANDAB CONTROL REPORTS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HOUTHI STRIKE ON SAUDI EAST-WEST OIL PIPELINE
BESSENT SAYS TREASURY MARKET IN VERY GOOD SHAPE, TERM PREMIUM DIFFERENTIAL LOWEST IN YEARS
CITI NOW SEES TWO MORE RBA HIKES THIS YEAR; NIKKEI 225 OFF 2.2%
The inflation read is mixed under the surface. Core Inflation Rate MoM printed 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus, while Core YoY held in line at 2.4% and headline YoY matched at 3.4%. Our read is that the hot core keeps the Fed's hiking bias funded; we would not fade the hawkish repricing before Friday.
Growth data disagrees with the inflation panic. Michigan Consumer Sentiment printed 47.8 against a 51 consensus, a soft signal that we would not chase into a session dominated by oil and yields.
Cross-Asset Read
Sectors led lower from the top of the index. Technology took off the most at -0.45pp with XLK down 1.41%, and consumer discretionary followed at -0.15pp. Our read is that leadership is thinning where it hurts, so we size down beta rather than buy the dip.
The scoreboard tells one story: oil versus equities. The SPX-versus-crude correlation deepened to -0.67 now from -0.56 a month ago, and we treat this as confirmation that an oil hedge against equity risk works again into CPI. WTI rose 12.59 on the week while the S&P slid 0.98, which is the pairing we are paid on.
Credit is not the marginal story. IG OAS sits at 81bp, the middle of its own range, against a 2023-to-date mean of 90bp. HY at 271bp sits at the tight end of its range, so risk appetite holds at the low-quality end. If IG OAS breaks 90bp, then our long-carry stance is invalidated and we cut; until then, we hold the carry.
Rates & Fed Pricing
No cut is priced anywhere on this strip. The first month with a hike at least half-priced is September at roughly 72% odds, and we would not chase before Friday's CPI clears. November carries near 100% conviction, so the hiking path is the base case we build around.
The strip peaks in November 2027 at 4.51%, some +88bp cumulative over an EFFR of 3.63%, while the trough sits this September at 3.81%. Terminal repriced +62bp on the week, and our read is that the oil-driven yield surge did that work while the data stayed secondary. The 30yr hit 5.366% and the 10yr topped 4.954% as crude ran, which is why we treat the move as an energy shock funding the hawkish curve. If CPI prints hot on Friday, then the September hike firms toward certainty and we add to the flattener; until then, we wait.
Bottom Line
Short oil versus equities holds on a -0.67 correlation that keeps deepening.
The 2s10s flattener extends at 40bp with the 2Y bid leading.
Gold fades on a -0.56 dollar correlation and we stay short.
September hike near 72% waits; we do not chase before Friday's print.
IG carry at 81bp holds, with invalidation still pinned at 90.
The Week Ahead
Monday's Empire State (cons 15): a print above 15 keeps our growth-resilient read; below 10 forces us to fade the hawkish curve.
Tuesday's ADP weekly (prev 12): a firm number keeps the hiking base case; a collapse toward zero makes us question the September hike.
Wednesday's Retail Sales (cons 0.9%): a beat backs the extend-the-flattener stance; a miss below the prior -0.6% challenges it.
Wednesday's Retail Sales Control Group (prev -0.4%): a bounce to positive keeps us short duration; another negative print makes us reconsider.
Wednesday's NAHB (cons 34): a hold near 34 changes nothing for us; a break under 30 would flag the growth crack we are watching.
Tradeable Levels
Floor-trader pivots off the last completed session (2026-09-10), with the 14-day average true range as the day's expected travel. Levels marked * sit inside 0.6 x ATR of the close, which is the band the session usually reaches. These are reference geometry drawn from the market's own range, not a directional call.
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positive IV-RV = options priced rich to what the tape is delivering (USO and UNG richest today); negative = vol going cheap (TSLA and NVDA). Percentile ranks unlock at 60 archived sessions per name · currently 51/60 · the archive deepens automatically every build.
Positioning Book · Friday COT
Crowded and cracking: Wheat, Corn · positioning at an extreme with price moving against the crowd is where squeezes start.
Disclaimer
The information in this publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, derivative, digital asset, or other financial instrument, nor a recommendation suited to any specific reader. All figures are drawn from the day's computed data set at the time of generation and may be delayed, revised, or superseded. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal; past performance and historical relationships do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. The author may hold positions in instruments discussed. This publication is licensed for the personal use of the subscriber only: redistribution, reproduction, or resale in any form is prohibited. © 2026 MARKET MACRO HUB. All rights reserved.