TL;DR
Long the December hike at around 82%; Wednesday's CPI core is the only print that changes it.
Dollar printed a fresh 2026 peak and strength is the cleanest macro trend right now.
Gold read is challenged: it fell with yields today, so if the 10Y keeps dropping I change it.
Tech weakness on China memory competition did the index damage; breadth elsewhere was green.
Duration is my preferred equity hedge over gold while that correlation stays broken.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said December hike pricing holds above 75% into Wednesday's CPI unless core runs cold, and nothing today challenges that. My oldest live thesis, opened five days ago, is that December holds above 75% on a hot core print; the first month with a 25bp hike at least half-priced is December 2026 at around 82% odds, so it sits comfortably. I flagged gold yesterday as a growth asset firming with equities, and that one is under more strain now. Gold fell with yields dropping, which is the opposite of how a growth-linked gold should behave, and the gold-versus-10Y correlation has swung hard. I'm not closing the gold read yet, but if the 10Y keeps backing lower and gold keeps sliding with it, I change it. The copper crowding flag is still live at the 87th percentile.
