TL;DR
Still long the December hike near 76%; a hot core on Wednesday is what keeps it honest.
Oil firming on Middle East supply fear is the live inflation risk pushing the front end.
Changing my read on copper: regime flipped to uptrend, but 87th percentile crowding caps how hard I chase.
SPX-Bitcoin correlation at 0.63 means Bitcoin is not hedging equity risk right now.
Tech dragged again while breadth held; I treat the 0.26% dip as mere noise.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said I was still long the December hike near 78% and treating gold as a growth asset that sells with equities. Today's close does not challenge that. The front end sold with 2s10s steepening +3bp on the day, and December sits around 76% on the strip, so the call that opened on 7th October holds above 75% and stays INTACT. Gold did nothing, down a rounding error, so the growth-asset read is neither helped nor hurt today. The copper crowding flag is no longer my worry in the same way: its regime flipped to uptrend. I'm changing my read on copper chasing because the engine now trends it, though the 87th percentile crowding still argues against piling in.
