TL;DR
Long the December hike, now near 82%, and the weak payrolls did not shift it.
IG at 85bp below its 89bp mean says no broad financial stress, my oldest thesis holds.
Bitcoin trades as a risk proxy now at 0.62 to SPX, so it hedges nothing here.
MOVE at the 114 high band is the real transmission channel, watch rate vol.
Copper longs stretched at the 87th percentile, a crowding flag I'm still carrying.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said long the December hike, still half-priced near 76%, with a weak payrolls print leaving it standing. This morning's strip confirms it, the December hike sits around 82% now and nothing on the wire dislodged it. I'm holding that read. The copper crowding flag is still live at the 87th percentile, and it's the oldest running observation I keep carrying, so I'm wary of chasing the metal here. ISM Services came in at 54.9, marginally under consensus, which was the first real growth test and it did NOT break the conviction.
