Today's Tear Sheets
The full daily pack is attached below · six PDFs generated from the same computed data set as this note:
Macro Regime · curve regimes, growth x inflation quadrant, breadth, credit, vol term structure, liquidity, stock-bond correlation, crypto cross-asset, housing
Fixed Income · UST complex, global curves, Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ implied policy paths, global 2Y and 10Y panels
Equities · index pages, relatives, vol suite, global relatives, Mag7+ quant sheet, options surfaces
FX · majors dashboards, correlations, COT positioning, crosses
Commodities · energy, metals, agriculture, COT crowding, term structure
Crypto · BTC ladders, ETH, macro correlations, ETF flow proxy
Every number in this note is computed by the desk's own systematic engines across 44 markets, then read in plain language. Five minutes and you're caught up.
In This Issue
Where We Stand
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
Cross-Asset Read
Rates & Fed Pricing
Bottom Line
The Week Ahead
Tradeable Levels
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Where We Stand
Yesterday we said the September hike at 62% odds waits on Tuesday's ISM before we extend the belly, and this morning's tape hardens that view with the September hike now at ~68% and the 2-year up +14bp to 4.34%. Our oldest running view, the IG carry regime opened 28 August at 80bp OAS, stays intact with OAS at 79bp, below the 90bp mean that would flip it. We keep short-duration as the call, the crude short remains flagged as our equity hedge, and we do not extend the belly until ISM prints.
Asset Market Pricing
Sector Attribution
Where the index move came from on 2026-08-31. Each sector's day multiplied by its approximate index weight gives its contribution in percentage points. The sectors and the unexplained remainder sum exactly to the index move, and the sector split accounts for 89% of it.
The remainder is not an error term to ignore. Index weights drift and sector ETFs are not the index's own constituents, so a decomposition of this kind never closes on its own. Reading the residual is how you know whether the sector story explains the day or only decorates it.
Momentum Book · Sticky Regimes
Assets whose regime is sticky (Markov persistence 6+ days): trends run, so the momentum engine sets the direction, and conviction rises with the strength bar.
Mean Reversion Book · Choppy Regimes
Assets whose regime is choppy : trends get faded, so the mean-reversion engine sets the direction against the stretch from the 21-day average.
Sector Snapshot & Breadth
Main Developments in Macro
TRUMP SAYS IRAN STRIKES WILL BE LIMITED, STRAIT OF HORMUZ "IN EXTREMELY GOOD SHAPE," 30 SHIPS A NIGHT MOVING OIL
SAUDI VLCC REPORTEDLY STOPPED AFTER BEING STRUCK BY PROJECTILES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ; WTI +1.5%
JAPANESE 10YR JGB YIELD HITS 3% FIRST TIME SINCE 1996 ON BOJ HIKE BETS; BESSENT TOLD JAPAN RATE HIKES ARE NEEDED
BUND FUTURES AT LOWEST IN 15 YEARS; US 10YR YIELD 4.78%, HIGHEST SINCE JANUARY 2025
MONEY MARKETS LEAN TOWARD SEPTEMBER FED HIKE; UST FUTURES TRICKLE LOWER
TRUMP SAYS FED CHAIR WARSH "WILL DO WHAT HE HAS TO DO," RATES "TOO HIGH"
CHINA RATINGDOG MANUFACTURING PMI EXPANDS FOR 10TH STRAIGHT MONTH
The growth read still runs warm, which is why the front end is selling. Dallas Fed Manufacturing jumped to 11.6 from 1.3, and durable goods came in at 1.1% against a 0.5% consensus, both arguing the belly deserves higher yields. We treat this as a reason to stay patient on duration.
The offset is Chicago PMI at 47.1 against a 58.3 consensus, a soft print that keeps us from chasing the hike outright. Core PCE landed in line at 0.2%, so the inflation impulse is neither the driver nor an all-clear; the geopolitical oil bid is doing the work into today.
Cross-Asset Read
Sectors did little to hide the leadership split. Energy contributed +0.07pp on a +2.04% day and Tech added +0.14pp, the only two propping the tape, while Communications dragged -0.13pp; that is a defensive, oil-led session, and the sector split accounts for 89% of the -0.33% move with a real residual. We read the leadership as risk-off with an energy hedge underneath.
The scoreboard move that matters is the correlation. SPX versus crude has flipped to -0.56 now from -0.18 a month ago, flagged as a big shift, and it means our crude cap works again as an equity hedge when Hormuz risk spikes. We would keep that hedge on into any escalation headline.
Credit is not corroborating equity anxiety. IG OAS at 79bp sits at the tight end of its own range, 11bp inside the 90bp mean, a carry regime. HY at 260bp is priced as if default risk has been abolished. If OAS breaks decisively above 90bp, then we flip the regime and fade carry; until then, we stay long the carry.
Rates & Fed Pricing
No month on the strip has a cut half-priced anywhere, so this is a tightening conversation. The first month with a hike at least half-priced is September at ~68% odds, and the high-conviction hike sits in November near 88%. The strip troughs at September's 3.8% and peaks in June 2027 at 4.23%, +60.5bp cumulative versus an EFFR of 3.63%.
The terminal repriced +38bp on the week even as it edged -10bp on the day, and the oil-led yield push is doing the driving. That is why the 2-year snapped +14bp while the 2s10s flattened -8bp; the front end is doing the tightening. We think ISM confirms the warm growth read, and we would not add to the belly ahead of the number because a Chicago-style miss would undo it.
If ISM prints above the 55.2 consensus, then we extend the belly and press the flattener; until then, we hold short-duration and wait.
Bottom Line
Front-end selloff holds, the 2-year up +14bp as the September hike hardens.
The IG carry regime holds with OAS at 79bp, below the mean that flips it.
Our crude equity hedge extends as SPX-crude correlation sits at -0.56.
Gold specs at 56.9% of open interest waits on the crowded long to unwind.
The 2s10s flattener holds, -8bp on the day into today's print.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing (cons 55.2): a beat keeps us extending the belly and pressing the flattener; a Chicago-style miss changes the read and we fade the hike.
Tuesday's JOLTS (cons 7.3): a print above 7.359 keeps the front-end short; a sharp drop softens our hike conviction.
Tuesday's Fed Barr speech: any pushback on September hardens our patience; a green light lets us extend.
Wednesday's ADP (cons 47): a beat over prior 44 keeps short-duration; a soft print into payrolls trims it.
Wednesday's Factory Orders (cons 0.6%): a strong turn from -0.3% confirms the warm read; a relapse challenges the belly short.
Tradeable Levels
Floor-trader pivots off the last completed session (2026-08-28 / 2026-08-31), with the 14-day average true range as the day's expected travel. Levels marked * sit inside 0.6 x ATR of the close, which is the band the session usually reaches. These are reference geometry drawn from the market's own range, not a directional call.
Vol Screen · Rich and Cheap Implied Vol
Positive IV-RV = options priced rich to what the tape is delivering (UNG and AVGO richest today); negative = vol going cheap (AMZN and NVDA). Percentile ranks unlock at 60 archived sessions per name · currently 43/60 · the archive deepens automatically every build.
Disclaimer
The information in this publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, derivative, digital asset, or other financial instrument, nor a recommendation suited to any specific reader. All figures are drawn from the day's computed data set at the time of generation and may be delayed, revised, or superseded. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal; past performance and historical relationships do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. The author may hold positions in instruments discussed. This publication is licensed for the personal use of the subscriber only: redistribution, reproduction, or resale in any form is prohibited. © 2026 MARKET MACRO HUB. All rights reserved.