TL;DR
Long the December hike near 80%, still my core view, and today's minutes decide whether it extends.
Oil back above USD 90 is the inflation channel I'm watching, while broad credit stress stays absent.
Copper crowding flag still live at the 87th percentile, I'm not chasing the metal.
SPX and Bitcoin now move together at 0.62, so crypto is risk beta and hedges nothing.
Growth cooling not cracking, with payrolls at 29 the one number that framed the week.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said I was long the December hike near 82% and that soft payrolls had not shifted it. This morning's tape backs that up. The December hike is still the first month with a 25bp move at least half-priced at around 80% odds, and January carries a near-certain hike. That is my oldest open thesis from 5 October, and it stays INTACT. The copper crowding flag is still live at the 87th percentile, and with the metal barely moving I'm still not chasing it. My IG thesis also holds: credit is sitting mid-range and is not the marginal story today.
