TL;DR
Long the December hike, still half-priced near 76%, and a weak payrolls print left it standing.
HY at 324bp is the live crack, it leads the index lower if it breaks, invalidation 90.
SPX-Bitcoin correlation jumped to 0.60, so Bitcoin trades as a risk proxy here.
Copper longs stretched at the 87th percentile, a crowding flag I'm still carrying.
ISM Services today is the first real growth test of the hike conviction.
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said I was long the December hike, first move still half-priced near 76%, and that a 29k payroll miss hadn't knocked it off. This morning's tape confirms that read. The front end got the dovish knee-jerk on Friday but the strip is right back where it was, December still around 76%. My oldest open thesis, high-yield widening as the low-quality end cracks first, stays live with HY at the wide end of its range and the copper crowding flag is still live at the 87th percentile. I'm not changing anything into ISM Services, which is the first real growth test of the whole hike story.
