TL;DR
The strip matches the rules within 12bp, so from here the data delivers or the trade is done, and it is right only if core PCE cools to 2.84% (structural, months).
I ride the front-end fade while the 2Y holds its 4.78% weekly line, the single level the whole book turns on (structural, months).
Duration is a broken equity hedge at SPX-bonds -0.06, so my downside stays in options and bonds stay out (positioning, days to weeks).
Downside hedges crowded at the high 90s percentiles set up a squeeze if risk merely holds, so neutral is not bearish here (positioning, days to weeks).
HY at the 78th percentile keeps the credit-stress watch live, the part of the tape I trust least (positioning, days to weeks).
Where We Stand
Yesterday I said the strip at +58bp now matches the rules within 12bp, the fade is spent, and from here the data has to deliver the softening. Today confirms it. The curve still prices +59bp to the peak against a rules median that justifies a shade more, so the gap is -12bp and the pricing matches the data (structural, months). I am not reversing anything here, I am letting the oldest thesis run.
That oldest thesis, the front-end premium fade opened five days ago, stays INTACT with the 2Y at 4.61 and invalidation at 4.78. I ride the front end while that weekly level holds (structural, months). The gold thesis is also still working, with price grinding lower on crowded downside hedges, and the HY credit-stress watch stays live as a flag. The copper crowding stays in the background today, while the crude longs-washed-out flag is still live and it matters more than ever after today.